Inflation showed its sticky nature in July, rising slightly as increases in services costs offset a decline in the price of goods, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a metric closely followed by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the 12-month period. That was in line with estimates.
The core index, stripping out energy and food costs, rose 0.2% and 4.2%, respectively. Last month, the annual rate of increase was 3% and 4.1%.
Other data in the release showed spending and income up.
“Condition of the American consumer remains rock solid,” RSM US LLP Principal & Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on X, formerly Twitter. He noted that spending was up 0.8%, inflation-adjusted spending was up 0.6% and 2.8% on a three-month annualized pace – placing some risk on the company’s 2.1% forecast for gross domestic product growth in the third quarter. He also pointed out that income was up 0.2%, while wages, salaries and compensation were up 0.4%.”
While the PCE number is perhaps higher than the Fed would like, Chairman Jerome Powell said in his recent speech at the central bank’s summer symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, noted that “on a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July.”
But he also cautioned that the path to the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target will require that interest rates remain high for some time to come.
“Turning to the outlook, although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role,” Powell said. “Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.”
Markets seem unfazed by the messaging. In recent days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been on an upward run and is positioned to open up 150 points at the opening.
“Headlines touting a soft landing are increasing, the consensus seems to be that a soft landing is the most likely scenario, this seems like a unicorn scenario, but mixed economic data makes predicting a recession difficult,” said Shana Orczyk Sissel, CEO and founder of Banrion Capital Management. “We see clear signs of broad economic weakness, but inflation is falling, employment is strong, and the consumer is spending, so it's hard to really see a recession occurring this year.”
Many economists have pointed out that getting inflation down to the 3% range from the 9% of last summer, while an accomplishment, will prove easier than wringing the last 1% out.
“While signs point to a continued slowdown in inflation over time, certain categories give us pause as we close out 2023 and head into 2024,” said Joe Davis, chief global economist at Vanguard. “The decline in house prices appears to have abated, which means that the contribution from shelter to core inflation next year may stabilize if not increase. Upside inflation risk is also present in healthcare services where insurance prices are expected to rise this October along with a continued upward pressure on labor demand in the sector, thus suggesting higher wage costs.”
“Our baseline trajectory anticipates a gradual decline in the pace of inflation with core PCE staying well above 3% through YE 2023 and remaining slightly above 2% by YE 2024,” Davis added.
B | 在前不久进行的马来西亚羽毛球公开赛上，国羽仅在混双项目上获得金牌。留守再战大师赛，国羽同样在混双、女双、女单三个项目进入决赛，而男双和男单依然是中国队相对短板，男双组合梁伟铿/王昶以及男单陆光祖均止步半决赛。郑思维/黄雅琼此次决赛中的对手是印尼组合里瓦尔迪/门塔里，这对组合堪称“黑马”，本次比赛一路过关斩将杀入决赛。但世界排名第一的郑思维/黄雅琼显然实力更胜一筹，没有让对手的“黑马”之路延续，仅用时32分钟，就以21:17、21:12连下两局击败对手。这是自今年4月以来，郑思维/黄雅琼连续获得的第30场胜利，共夺得了六站高级别赛事冠军。女双组合陈清晨/贾一凡在马来西亚公开赛上早早出局止步八强，这一次两人一扫颓势，不仅再度杀入高级别赛事决赛，还以21:11、21:12轻松战胜了日本知名组合松山奈未/志田千阳，拿下了赛季的第四个冠军。奥运冠军陈雨菲则在决赛中失手，以0：2不敌出生于2002年的韩国小将安洗莹，而在此前的六次交手中，陈雨菲保持全胜。
C | 当天比赛陈雨菲首局进入状态较慢，中局阶段双方陷入拉锯战，尽管陈雨菲不断追分但还是没能顶住对手挑战，以17:21先丢一局；第二局陈雨菲状态明显下滑，开局就是1:12大比分落后，导致追分乏力，最终以5:21落败，整场比赛仅耗时38分钟。陈雨菲赛后在社交平台发文表示，自己并没有发挥失常，已经在目前的身体状况下进行了充分调动，只是身体疲劳不足以支撑一场比赛。她还表示，本赛季已经打满了10站赛事，接下来会根据情况选择性参赛。
D | 男单方面，印尼选手瓦尔多约以22:20、21:15击败了中国香港的伍家朗获得冠军，男双冠军则被印尼组合阿尔菲安/阿迪安托摘得，他们以21:12、21:19击败了同胞阿山/塞提亚万。(完)
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